Stupid Oscar Predictions

24 Feb

The title says it all so let’s get started with a comparison of how I think Sunday night should go vs. how it actually will go. These are more or less in the order the awards will be presented. I’d also like to award Oscars for reasons not included on this list but that’s another post.

Best Supporting Actor:

Who should win – JARED LETO for his role in DALLAS BUYERS CLUB. Hands down owned the role of “Rayon” and embodied the elements of Comedy and Tragedy with his performance. If it wasn’t for this movie, I’d say MICHAEL FASSBENDER is a close second.

Who will win – JARED LETO because he deserves it doesn’t matter, what really counts to the judges is if the subject matter is of social importance (as Hollywood sees it). Coincidentally for this category the same nominee fits both qualifications.

Best Animated Feature:

Should win – THE WIND RISES because MIYAZAKI  is overdue.

Will win – FROZEN, not counting Pixar movies, Disney’s animated films in the past couple of years have been disappointing. This is because they used to be the best there was in animation. By continually raising the bar for animated features every year for decades, audiences came to expect perfection and in the recent past Disney didn’t deliver. FROZEN rose Disney out of the rut they’d been stuck in and is the popular choice.

Best Song:

Should win – “THE MOON SONG” from HER, this was one of the smartest movies of the year and Arcade Fire’s contribution sets the perfect tone.

Will win – “LET IT GO” from FROZEN, The Academy isn’t about music so they’ll vote for the safest choice.

Best Original Screenplay:

Should win – PRISONERS, it took you on such an intense unpredictable ride that it should win, but it wasn’t even nominated. So if HER or DALLAS BUYERS CLUB won, they deserve it.

Will win – AMERICAN HUSTLE, I really think this overrated movie was pretty bland and forgettable. But since the Academy didn’t award SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK for writing last year, they’re going to try and make up for it by rewarding the same filmmakers this year for an inferior movie. For those who haven’t seen AMERICAN HUSTLE, it isn’t the movie you think it is, those who have, you know what I’m talking about.

Best Animated Short: Has anyone heard of any of these nominees?

Should win – MR. HUMBLOT because it has a robot in it

Will win – FERAL, by contrasting the dichotomy of the modern and primitive lifestyles through the eyes of a child, blah blah blah, artsy gobbled gook = Oscar. (Sorry Mickey, snubbed again.)

Best Documentary Short: Judging by titles alone

Should win – CAVEDIGGER, I’ve actually wanted to see this movie but it didn’t play in my town and isn’t available for home viewing yet unless I pay for it on their website.

Will win  –  FACING FEAR, Because the Academy sees this as being the most socially relevant movie that nobody saw.

Best Live Action Short:

Should win – Who cares?

Will win – THE VOORMAN PROBLEM, because it is the only one in English and us stupid Americans like that.

Best Hair and Makeup:

Should win – JACKASS PRESENTS: BAD GRANDPA, and not just because this would be a huge surprise and fuck you to everyone but because without the skills required to make Johnny Knoxville look like an 80 year old man to the general public this movie couldn’t exist. (For the record the world would be a better place if this movie didn’t exist).

Will win – DALLAS BUYERS CLUB, because seriously we can’t let JACKASS or  THE LONE RANGER be Oscar winning movies.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Should win – CATCHING FIRE, what an improvement this movie was over the first. But since the Academy always snubs sci-fi and didn’t even nominate it, I’ll have to pick PHILOMENA, Because I want to live in a world where STEVE COOGAN wins an Oscar.

Will win – TWELVE YEARS A SLAVE, regardless of the problems with his movie, the true story has such a powerful emotional impact and a historical significance. Now couple that with the fact that the script is adapted from a very old book that could easily have been lost and forgotten forever had it not been for this movie and you got an winner.

Best Supporting Actress:

Should win – I Love JENNIFER LAWRENCE and she was the best part of AMERICAN HUSTLE, but her costar in CATCHING FIRE, JENA MALONE was a better Joanna Mason than I ever expected to see. She deserves some credit and I think in the sequels we’ll see her become more noticeable. I know who should get it and…

Will win – LUPITA NYONG’O for TWELVE YEARS A SLAVE she was intense and the Academy has a recent history of favoring African American actresses.

Best Production Design:

Should win – GRAVITY, because even astronauts were impressed at the realism of the sets and props.

Will win – THE GREAT GATSBY, because it was lavish and over the top

Best Costume Design:

Should win – CATCHING FIRE even though it isn’t nominated, fashion is a big part of that world and this movie finally got it right.

Will win – TWELVE YEARS A SLAVE

Best Sound Editing:

Should win –  GRAVITY, because it edited out sound to actually represent the vacuum of space, something most space movies don’t do.

Will win – THE HOBBIT

Best Sound Mixing:

Should win – INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS for how they presented Live musical performances.

Will win – GRAVITY

Best Cinematography: This is the only category where if I haven’t seen the movie that wins I will watch it ASAP. Luckily I’ve already seen the winner, 3 times.

Should win – GRAVITY

Will win – GRAVITY, It better fucking win this one!

Best Score:

Should win – GRAVITY, with minimal dialog the music is much more important to the story.

Will win – GRAVITY, normally whoever wins the Golden Globe for score wins the Oscar as well but ALL IS LOST despite winning the globe isn’t nominated.

Best Visual Effects:

Should win: GRAVITY although THE HOBBIT did look amazing.

Will win: GRAVITY

Best Documentary:

Should win – BLACK FISH I think this movie was one of the highlights of the year but it didn’t even get nominated. But 20 FEET FROM STARDOM was the most entertaining of the nominated documentaries.

Will win – DIRTY WARS because it’s viewed as politically important.

Best Film Editing:

Should win – GRAVITY, because less is more.

Will win – AMERICAN HUSTLE, because there’s no logic applied to judging this category.

Best Foreign Film:

Should win – THE GREAT BEAUTY

Will win – OMAR, because it’s from the Middle East.

Best Actor:

Should Win – MATTHEW McCONAUGHEY for DALLAS BUYERS CLUB

Will win – CHIWETEL EJIOFOR for 12 YEARS A SLAVE, he was very good but will get it because of the subject matter of the movie.

Best Actress:

Should win – SOPHIE NELIESSE for her title role in THE BOOK THIEF this little girl went above and beyond and was a big part of why this little movie was wonderful and she wasn’t even nominated.

Will win – AMY ADAMS for AMERICAN HUSTLE, she is really good, but I just can’t root for anything about this movie.

Best Director:

Should win – ALFONSO CUARON for GRAVITY, because he spent 4 years developing new techniques to perfect the story he wanted to show us.

Will win – DAVID O. RUSSELL for AMERICAN HUSTLE because too many people have been brainwashed into thinking this movie is great.

Best Picture:

Should win – GRAVITY because it was the best movie of the year, your argument is invalid.

Will win – AMERICAN HUSTLE or 12 YEARS A SLAVE, because we don’t live in a sane or just universe.

Good Luck on filling out those last minute ballots for the Oscar betting pool.

Carl Wells

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